Left in the lurch

http://www.gfilesindia.com SPOTLIGHT | west Bengal Left in the lurchWill the Reds gain if the Congress and Mamata Banerjee part ways? by DIPTENDRA RAYCHAUDHURI THE Left is surely seeing red now. Its leaders in West Bengal perpetuated the myth that the defeat in the State was due to the alliance between the Congress and the Trinamool Congress (TC) of Mamata Banerjee. It is another matter that a similar tie-up in the 2001 Assembly elections brought the Congress-TC combine less than one-third seats. But now the Kolkata municipal poll results have exposed how cut off the Left leaders in West Bengal are from the political reality. So what will happen in West Bengal next May when, most likely, a new government will be formed after the Assembly elections? One thing is easily predictable. It will not be a Left government. This prediction is not based on the municipal poll results as its electorate consisted of only 16 per cent of the total number of Assembly voters. It is based on the swing of the popular mood from the 2008 panchayat election onwards. Now, certain things have become evident: One, the Left is consistently losing its vote. From slightly over 50 per cent in 2006, in four years it has reduced to below 40 per cent. This is the lowest since 1977, surpassing the previous most-dismal performance in 1984 when, after Indira Gandhi’s assassination, the Left secured about 46 per cent. Two, the geographical area of domination of the Congress-TC is clearly demarcated. TC dominates 150-160 seats (mostly in South Bengal), the Congress dominates 60-70 seats (mainly in North-Central Bengal), and both parties have the capability to cut into each other in the remaining 65-75 seats (mostly in districts like West Midnapore, Purulia, Bankura and Coochbehar which are still dominated, though to a much lesser extent, by the Left). SCENARIO I (POSSIBILITY: 80%) TC and Congress get 2/3 majorityDespite the CPI(M)’s effort to create a rift between the Congress and TC, both parties are likely to fight the Assembly election together. If it happens, the opposition unity will cause further erosion in Left votes. The alliance is likely to get 200+ seats in the 294-member Assembly. The TC may get about 150-160 and the Congress about 40-50. However, if we take into account the gain the opposition has made after the 2009 polls, it may go beyond 250. The government will last a full five years. SCENARIO II (POSSIBILITY: 10%)Mamata as CM with a simple majorityDespite the CPI(M)’s effort to create a rift between the Congress and TC, both parties are likely to fight the Assembly election together. If it happens, the opposition unity will cause further erosion in Left votes. The alliance is likely to get 200+ seats in the 294-member Assembly. The TC may get about 150-160 and the Congress about 40-50. However, if we take into account the gain the opposition has made after the 2009 polls, it may go beyond 250. The government will last a full five years. SCENARIO III (POSSIBILITY: 7.5%) Mamata as CM without majority for TCIn case of a very sour break-up of the alliance, the TC may miss the magic mark by a few seats and then will have to depend on Congress support again post-election. Mamata will be CM but it will be an unstable government and another election will ensue soon. However, it may so happen that a large chunk of the newly elected legislators of the Congress comes out of the party to join Mamata. In that case Mamata will have no difficulty run ning the government for a full five years. SCENARIO IV (POSSIBILITY: 2.5%)Congress heads a minority governmentIn case of a very sour break-up of the alliance, the TC may miss the magic mark by a few seats and then will have to depend on Congress support again post-election. Mamata will be CM but it will be an unstable government and another election will ensue soon. However, it may so happen that a large chunk of the newly elected legislators of the Congress comes out of the party to join Mamata. In that case Mamata will have no difficulty run ning the government for a full five years. Three, in case there is no alliance between the Congress and TC, the geographical demarcation will be more strongly evident before the Assembly elections. The public as well as political workers and leaders will definitely veer to the locally dominant opposition party. After all, the opposition is all set to come to power after three-and-a-half decades. No one can vouch for either state Congress supremo Manas Bhunia or the TC chief caring to retain the alliance in the Assembly poll. While Mamata incorporates much too strong anti-CPM fervour, Bhunia is similar to any Congress leader in the State who does not mind taking or extending support when it comes to the Left. But what will happen if the Congress and TC come together? Or, if they are not together? Until now, considering the three sides in the contest, the TC enjoys supremacy in approximately 120-125 seats, the Left in about 100 seats and the Congress in 35-40 seats. The rest of the 294 seats are either hanging in the balance or dominated by smaller parties. One can build different scenarios keeping in mind the vote percentage of the parties and geographical imbalances in support base.